169, 168, 167, 168... How many innovation programs will remain tomorrow?

At the start of the government's National Innovation System review there were (according to the Minister's calculations) 169 programs offering support in the innovation space.

Commercial Ready and the Renewable Energy Development Initiative (REDI) disappeared in the federal budget. Climate Ready was added. So, at a minimum we now have 168 programs.

The green paper will be released tomorrow, and Dr Cutler and Senator Carr will be doing a lot of press, justifying the investment in the report. And, admittedly there will be a process of finalising the green paper into a white paper presumably ahead of changed in the 2009/2010 federal budget. In the current analysis, though, I am curious about the following:

• how many programs will be cut or recommended to continue?
• what mix of policy interventions across tax, grants, bounties/awards and regulatory improvements will be justified?
• which industry sectors will win or continue to lose support (hint: sustainability looks promising, information technology, perhaps not so much)?
• what should the overall budget commitment to innovation be?
• how clear will the report be in identifying and capitalising upon Australia's strategic or comparative advantages in terms of the industry and innovation system?
• how clear will the report be in identifying market failures that were previously unknow, and proposing solutions to the same?

There is certainly a lot of food for thought there. Fundamentally, for the review to create value it needs to achieve insights and policy/program changes that have the capacity to significantly increase Australia's productivity whilst maintaining or improving sustainability. In my opinion, that is going to be the test. And we will very shortly know how Dr Cutler has handled the Oracle's Dilemma.

But, depending on the accuracy of at least one source, don't expect too much from the current review on the area of Energy. Apparently that is a function of the Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (Martin Furguson's department) and not the Department of Innovation, Industry, Science and Research.

Go figure?

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